September 18, 2026: Ukrainians have always been very entrepreneurial and eager to develop new products and get them into production. In 2022, many of these local entrepreneurs began obtaining, modifying, and building drones for the war effort. With the war nearly over, Ukrainians are seeking and finding more foreign partners to set up manufacturing or marketing operations in Ukraine. Foreign clients want Ukrainians with combat experience to visit and share their experience and expertise with local military units and drone manufacturers. The foreigners pay for this advice, knowing that no one, not even the Russians, is more adept at manufacturing, deploying, and operating drones. The drone experts also explain, and sometimes demonstrate, how long-range drones can destroy enemy economic and military operations deep in enemy territory.

Another service Ukraine provides is to test new foreign military equipment or weapons. If Ukrainian troops accept these items and use them successfully in combat, these combat-tested products are easier to sell. Even if these items fail, the manufacturer can fix the problems and pay for another test. Meanwhile, now in its fifth year, the Russian war in Ukraine is stumbling towards peace. This is happening despite Russian claims that its economy, now a wartime economy, is strong and that Western sanctions are a minor nuisance. The Russian claims are illusions because the Russian economy was transformed, distorted, and weakened by the war and the American and European sanctions, which cost the economy about half a trillion dollars. Despite that, Russia still has the world's fifth-largest economy, behind the United States, China, India, and Japan.

Because of the war, government spending went from 34 percent of GDP in 2021 to 40 percent last year. Another financial problem was that Russian banks could no longer use the international fund transfer SWIFT system. Russia had to cobble together a smaller system with countries it still traded with. Manufacturing became more expensive because the sanctions prevented Russia from getting the electronic components it needed for many of its products. Substitutes could usually be obtained through smuggling or special arrangements with China that let Russia plausibly deny providing sanctioned goods. If China was caught aiding Russia, it would face sanctions.

There were other deceptions. Russia claimed that its economy grew by 12-14 percent between 2020 and 2024 when it shrank by eight percent. Russia also claimed its merchant shipping was still operational. What Russia was reluctant to dwell on were the additional sanction costs of insurance, ships seized, and oil lost.

In Ukraine, Russia could no longer provide enough new recruits to replace heavier losses. By 2026, the Ukrainians were unquestionably on the offensive. Russia has lost 1.4 million soldiers killed, disabled, and missing. Russia lost most of its modern armored vehicles, and it will take four or more years to rebuild. Casualties are a more serious problem, with badly wounded soldiers sent back into combat. Military police will go to the homes of wounded soldiers and take these men back to the combat zone.

Wounded and disabled troops cannot launch attacks or provide an effective defense. Russian commanders thought drones were still an effective weapon, but Ukrainians developed more defensive drone interceptors and superior attack drones. Long-range Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as the oil storage and refining infrastructure between the Ukrainian border and those two Russian cities. Factories building components for drones, missiles, and air defense systems were also hit. The last few years of Ukrainian attacks on Russian air defenses made it easier for Ukrainian attacks to be made unopposed. The Ukrainians refrained from attacking Moscow on May 9^th during the World War II Victory Day parade. The Russians reduced the size of that parade, and no combat vehicles were present, an unprecedented decision.

The personnel, equipment, and capability losses have eliminated any chance of Russia defeating the Ukrainians. Russian leader Vladimir is left with one major decision: how to explain this failure to the Russian people. He’ll come up with something to say, and it will be a painful speech to deliver.

Ukrainian Overseas Scouts

September 18, 2026: Ukrainians have always been very entrepreneurial and eager to develop new products and get them into production. In 2022, many of these local entrepreneurs began obtaining, modifying, and building drones for the war effort. With the war nearly over, Ukrainians are seeking and finding more foreign partners to set up manufacturing or marketing operations in Ukraine. Foreign clients want Ukrainians with combat experience to visit and share their experience and expertise with local military units and drone manufacturers. The foreigners pay for this advice, knowing that no one, not even the Russians, is more adept at manufacturing, deploying, and operating drones. The drone experts also explain, and sometimes demonstrate, how long-range drones can destroy enemy economic and military operations deep in enemy territory.

Another service Ukraine provides is to test new foreign military equipment or weapons. If Ukrainian troops accept these items and use them successfully in combat, these combat-tested products are easier to sell. Even if these items fail, the manufacturer can fix the problems and pay for another test. Meanwhile, now in its fifth year, the Russian war in Ukraine is stumbling towards peace. This is happening despite Russian claims that its economy, now a wartime economy, is strong and that Western sanctions are a minor nuisance. The Russian claims are illusions because the Russian economy was transformed, distorted, and weakened by the war and the American and European sanctions, which cost the economy about half a trillion dollars. Despite that, Russia still has the world's fifth-largest economy, behind the United States, China, India, and Japan.

Because of the war, government spending went from 34 percent of GDP in 2021 to 40 percent last year. Another financial problem was that Russian banks could no longer use the international fund transfer SWIFT system. Russia had to cobble together a smaller system with countries it still traded with. Manufacturing became more expensive because the sanctions prevented Russia from getting the electronic components it needed for many of its products. Substitutes could usually be obtained through smuggling or special arrangements with China that let Russia plausibly deny providing sanctioned goods. If China was caught aiding Russia, it would face sanctions.

There were other deceptions. Russia claimed that its economy grew by 12-14 percent between 2020 and 2024 when it shrank by eight percent. Russia also claimed its merchant shipping was still operational. What Russia was reluctant to dwell on were the additional sanction costs of insurance, ships seized, and oil lost.

In Ukraine, Russia could no longer provide enough new recruits to replace heavier losses. By 2026, the Ukrainians were unquestionably on the offensive. Russia has lost 1.4 million soldiers killed, disabled, and missing. Russia lost most of its modern armored vehicles, and it will take four or more years to rebuild. Casualties are a more serious problem, with badly wounded soldiers sent back into combat. Military police will go to the homes of wounded soldiers and take these men back to the combat zone.

Wounded and disabled troops cannot launch attacks or provide an effective defense. Russian commanders thought drones were still an effective weapon, but Ukrainians developed more defensive drone interceptors and superior attack drones. Long-range Ukrainian drones attacked Moscow and St. Petersburg, as well as the oil storage and refining infrastructure between the Ukrainian border and those two Russian cities. Factories building components for drones, missiles, and air defense systems were also hit. The last few years of Ukrainian attacks on Russian air defenses made it easier for Ukrainian attacks to be made unopposed. The Ukrainians refrained from attacking Moscow on May 9^th during the World War II Victory Day parade. The Russians reduced the size of that parade, and no combat vehicles were present, an unprecedented decision.

The personnel, equipment, and capability losses have eliminated any chance of Russia defeating the Ukrainians. Russian leader Vladimir is left with one major decision: how to explain this failure to the Russian people. He’ll come up with something to say, and it will be a painful speech to deliver.